Last February, Tom Dallis offered a brilliant argument here for the existence of God from “counterfactuals”, asserting that counterfactuals are “one of the most overlooked yet powerful arguments for God.” His argument follows and is both beautiful in logic and elegant in simplicity. Here is his argument:

Premise 1: If naturalism (atheistic materialism) is true, then only things that physically exist can be true.
Premise 2: Counterfactual truths (things that could have been but are not) do not exist physically, yet they are objectively real.
Premise 3: The existence of objective, non-physical truths (such as counterfactuals) requires a transcendent, necessary mind to ground them.
Conclusion: Therefore, a transcendent, necessary mind (God) must exist.

But what exactly are counterfactuals? They are events that could potentially happen, but never do. A classic example is found in 1 Sam 23:9-13 where David is safely ensconced in Keilah hiding from Saul who is seeking to kill him. Saul finds out where David is and David inquires of the Lord if Saul will come to Keilah. God responds “yes” that Saul will come. David then inquires of God if the citizens of Keilah will hand David over to Saul. God says “yes”, they will surrender David to Saul. To avoid this, David leaves Keilah. Saul subsequently learns that David has left Keilah and never goes to Keilah. God knew what would happen if David remained in Keilah. But those events never happened. They are what we know as “counterfactuals”———events that could potentially happen but never happen.

Matt 11:20-24 is another example of counterfactuals where Jesus decrees what would have happened to Sodom had they witnessed what Chorazin and Bethsaida were witness to in the ministry of Jesus———Sodom would not have been destroyed. But the city was destroyed. Another counterfactual.

God knows all things actual and potential (counterfactuals); this kind of knowledge is truly mind-boggling. In addition to knowing everything you will do, God knows everything you could have done but never do. He knows with certainty whom you will marry. But he also knows whom you could have married had circumstances been different. Considering the complexity of life, this degree of knowledge is beyond comprehension; it is truly infinite.

(Counterfactuals are instrumental in the theory of Molinism, also known as Middle Knowledge, which I will address in a future post. Molinism is a fascinating theory that affirms both the absolute sovereignty of God and genuine human freedom. Contemporary advocates for Molinism include William Lane Craig, Kenneth Keathley of Southeastern Baptist Theological Seminary and Bruce Ware of Southern Baptist Theological Seminary.)

What does Dallis say about counterfactuals? He argues that counterfactuals really exist but “only makes sense if reality is grounded in a transcendent mind rather than in physical necessity or randomness.” This is sound logic. The declaration that “reality is grounded in a transcendent mind” is foundational to his argument. As the architect of reality, God is indeed ultimate reality. All reality is necessarily grounded in God. Further buttressing his argument, Dallis correctly points out that “counterfactual reasoning is fundamental to scientific progress” and backs up his declaration with examples from quantum physics, chaos theory and artificial intelligence.

In his argument, Dallis is offering what is known as a logical syllogism. For a logical syllogism to be true, two things are necessary: (1) the premises must each be true, and (2) the logic must be sound with the conclusion necessarily following from the premises. Naturalists should have no problem with the first premise. I suspect the second premise is where most skeptics would attack his argument, arguing that counterfactuals do not exist. Dallis seems to recognize this and spends considerable time defending the objective reality of non-physical counterfactuals.

The heart of the matter in his argument is the question whether anything that is not physical reality, can actually exist. This is where most naturalists do not live consistently within their own worldview. Followed consistently, Naturalism is the inevitable route to the destructive and suicidal worldview of Nihilism where everything is meaningless. In true Naturalism, there is no supernatural, and no transcendent values eternally exist outside space and time. Physical matter is all that exists. There is no objective moral good in Naturalism which subjectively grounds morality in humans. The upshot of this is a definition of moral good as group-approved, survival-promoting action. (By this definition, the Nazis were “good” in their execution of the holocaust.) There is no explanation in Naturalism for the conscious mind. Love is nothing more than neurons firing amidst a chemical reaction in the brain that evolved through random, mindless processes over eons of time (tell that to your sweetheart on Valentines day.)

Dallis’s final comment hits the proverbial nail on the head when he writes, “If counterfactual truths exist but do not have a physical form, what grounds their reality apart from God?” Bingo. This is precisely why most skeptics vociferously decry the existence of counterfactuals, claiming that they have no ground. The problem is that if counterfactuals are real and do exist, their only possible ground is the transcendent mind of God. Scripture irrefutably and explicitly presents the real existence of non-physical counterfactuals leaving the door closed on that objection. In further support of his argument, Dallis quotes Alvin Plantinga, “Counterfactuals, like logical laws, require a necessary intellect for their grounding. Otherwise, they would be unintelligible.”

Tom Dallis’s Argument From Counterfactuals is solid and the fruit of keen analytical insight. It is delightful in its simplicity. I have always regarded the Moral Argument as the most powerful argument for the existence of God. I put Tom’s Argument From Counterfactuals right up there alongside the Moral Argument and have added it to my armory of apologetic arguments.